Probability and quantile estimation from individually micro-aggregated data

Micro-aggregation is a frequently used strategy to anonymize data before they are released to the scientific public. A sample of a continuous random variable is individually micro-aggregated by first sorting and grouping the data into groups of equal size and then replacing the values of the variable in each group by their group mean. In a similar way, data with more than one variable can be anonymized by individual micro-aggregation. Data thus distorted may still be used for statistical analysis. We show that if probabilities and quantiles are estimated in the usual way by computing relative frequencies and sample quantiles, respectively, these estimates are consistent and asymptotically normal under mild conditions.     

Austerity,Growth and Inflation: Remarks on the Eurozone's Unresolved Competitiveness Problem

While the financial protection measures enacted by the ECB and the community of Eurozone members have calmed financial markets, they have left the competitiveness problem of the Eurozone's southern countries and France unresolved. The paper compares price inflation before the crisis with the necessary and actual price cuts that have taken place since the outbreak of the crisis, predicting a decade of stagnation for the south and inflation for the north. Keynesian demand policy is counterproductive in the south and unnecessary in the north. The necessary realignment of relative goods prices and current account imbalances can be achieved if market forces are allowed to redirect capital flows to the north instead of being artificially steered to uses they are keen to avoid.     

Common socio-economic cycle periods

We present a meta-analysis of cycle periods in historical socio-economic data found in the K-wave literature. The literature on stochastic and deterministic cycles in variables such as the consumer price index, employment, interest rates, commodity prices, GDP, war and hegemony is huge and scattered. However our meta-analysis reveals various commonalities. Our key finding is that there is a common set of cycle periods that is common across most socio-economic variables.     

AGRICULTURAL MECHANIZATION: A Comparative Historical Perspective

The article provides a detailed comparative historical reviewof the patterns of agricultural mechanization by operation.The first section reemphasizes the major conclusions of theinduced innovation literature, and the second section showsthe remarkable similarity in the early mechanization experiencesof the developed and developing countries. New mechanical powersources were first used on power-intensive operations such asprocessing, pumping, transport, and tillage, while mechanizationof control-intensive operations came much later and usuallyin association with high wages. Finally, an investigation ofthe process of agricultural machinery innovation shows thatthe public sector and corporate research has contributed littleto machinery invention. Machinery innovation has generally beenthe domain of small manufacturers, with corporations becomingsignificant in later stages of product development and engineeringoptimization.      

Strategy-Proof Probabilistic Decision Schemes for One-Dimensional Single-Peaked Preferences

Collective decision problems are considered with a finite number of agents who have single-peaked preferences on the real line. A probabilistic decision scheme assigns a probability distribution over the real line to every profile of reported preferences. The main result of the paper is a characterization of the class of unanimous and strategy-proof probabilistic schemes with the aid of fixed probability distributions that play a role similar to that of the phantom voters in H. Moulin (Public Choice35 (1980), 437-455). Thereby, the work of Moulin (1980) is extended to the probabilistic framework. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: D71, D81.     

A nonlinear long memory model, with an application to US unemployment

Two important empirical features of US unemployment are that shocks to the series seem rather persistent and that it seems to rise faster during recessions than that it falls during expansions. To jointly capture these features of long memory and nonlinearity, we put forward a new time series model and evaluate its empirical performance. We find that the model describes the data rather well and that it outperforms related competitive models on various measures of fit.